October 2025
Classificazione JEL: G32, K42, L25, O17.
Keywords: organized crime, firms, bank credit.
This study finds that credit constraints significantly increase the risk of organized crime infiltration in firms. Using confidential data on Italian companies, we show that a downgrade to substandard credit rating reduces credit availability by more than 30% over five years and increases the probability of infiltration by 5% (and by as much as 10% in the real estate sector). Firms infiltrated by organized crime exhibit higher survival rates than other downgraded firms, suggesting that criminal organizations may act as a financial backstop for businesses in distress. These findings carry important policy implications: during economic downturns, ensuring access to credit for healthy yet financially vulnerable firms is crucial to prevent them from becoming targets of organized crime.
